538 Polls

538 Polls General political polling or sports topics may be considered by the moderators but they should be as closely linked to Nate Silver 538 as possible Do not post the latest political news regardless of its apparent veracity Keep it to polls polling and the

For this discussion the first case is Republican leaning while the second case is Republican sponsored 538 tags sponsored polls as partisan because they show roughly a 6 point average advantage for the sponsor over non sponsored polls 538 doesn t ignore partisan lean from pollsters though they just handle it through a different U Demortus It s also worth noting that republicans have dramatically underperformed in the polls the past couple years losing 2 house special elections they were supposed to win in the summer of 2022 having an absolutely abysmal performance in the midterms on a level that s historic and losing multiple senate gubernatorial and congressional

538 Polls

538 Polls
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2024 Map Based On Recent 538 Polls R YAPms
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Congress Approval Polls FiveThirtyEight
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Think of an instagram picture The more filters you put on it the less detailed the image becomes So when 538 are applies algorithms to the polls to make them more accurate than the poll itself they are just adding statistical noise Even if 538 s numbers are more correct in 2024 it is because a broken clock is right twice a day They left their Texas numbers completely untouched for two full weeks ignoring multiple well rated polls listed on 538 showing TX tied or Biden up 1 or 2 The moment a new poll came in showing Trump up 4 they updated their average with that while leaving out the earlier ones Really influenced my opinion of that site

It s funny that everyone had a similar take but flipped after the Trump conviction His chances didn t tank Polls didn t move It s possible we re in a very static election Also possible in 2 weeks the polls tell a different story Anecdotally I know a lot of people not necessarily Dems that said he did great It reflects a few decent polls that have come in for Trump this week and also that as we inch closer to November the forecast is gonna start weighing polls more and fundamentals less It s been like 4 days since the forecast came out

More picture related to 538 Polls

The Polls Are Getting Better For Republicans FiveThirtyEight
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2024 Election Forecast 538 Collen Dorothea
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538 Presidential Polls 2024 Terri Georgeta
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Polls are skewed for many reasons but the inflated political influence they allow politicians to wield are among the most insidious In that sense polls become propaganda If you look at the actual polls election results of people who showed up for the primaries a significant percentage of R s 10 20 continue to vote against Trump Republicans mocked 538 in 2016 and casted entire polling methodology to be some left wing conspiracy Even if Nate decides to rid of 538 something else will fill up that space since predictions aren t going anywhere That said I think and Nate also mentioned that this time there might be a Republican bias in the polls

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538 Presidential Polls 2024 Electoral College Nana Talyah
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R fivethirtyeight Reddit

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General political polling or sports topics may be considered by the moderators but they should be as closely linked to Nate Silver 538 as possible Do not post the latest political news regardless of its apparent veracity Keep it to polls polling and the

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Can We Talk About Partisan Pollsters This Cycle And How We Reddit

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For this discussion the first case is Republican leaning while the second case is Republican sponsored 538 tags sponsored polls as partisan because they show roughly a 6 point average advantage for the sponsor over non sponsored polls 538 doesn t ignore partisan lean from pollsters though they just handle it through a different

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538 Presidential Polls 2024 Electoral College Nana Talyah

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538 Polls - They left their Texas numbers completely untouched for two full weeks ignoring multiple well rated polls listed on 538 showing TX tied or Biden up 1 or 2 The moment a new poll came in showing Trump up 4 they updated their average with that while leaving out the earlier ones Really influenced my opinion of that site